US aluminium at a glance: Primary output down 10%, scrap recovery up 5%, surplus 1.37 million tonnes & much more

Monthly production trend

While analysing the monthly trend this year, it is observed that the United States primary aluminium production ranged between 52,000 and 57,000 tonnes, following a peak in the first month of the year amounting to 63,000 tonnes. Similarly, scrap recovery was mostly around 292,000 to 299,000 tonnes, with a peak of 302,000 tonnes in March.

However, it is interesting to note that the United States scrap recovery in the first half of 2024 was way higher than it was in the second half. According to USGS data, the scrap recovery in H1 totalled 1.763 million tonnes compared to 1.71 million tonnes in H2 2024.

Also, the United States primary aluminium production in H1 was less than in H2. In H1, the output of primary aluminium was 339,000 tonnes versus 336,600 tonnes in H2. However, the overall decline in the United States primary aluminium production in 2024 could be attributed to electricity cost surge. As of May 2024, industrial electricity prices amounted to USD 7.95 cents per kilowatt-hour, up USD 7.82 cents per kilowatt in the previous month, according to S&P Global.

The average daily production of primary aluminium through 2024 was 1,850 tonnes per day - 10 per cent less than in 2023 and 13 per cent less than in 2022.

Trade dynamic & metal surplus

In 2024, the United States imported 5.52 million tonnes of aluminium, of which 69.23 per cent of imports were aluminium crude metal and alloys, with a total of 3.6 million tonnes. Plates, sheets and bars imports were 1.22 million tonnes, while scrap imports were 701,000 tonnes. The United States total imports in 2024 recorded a year-on-year increase of 0.9 per cent 5.57 million tonnes.

In terms of exports, the United States exported 3.43 million tonnes of aluminium, including 2.1 million tonnes of scrap exports, 722,000 tonnes of aluminium plates, sheets and bars exports, and 612,000 tonnes of crude metal and alloys exports. These data indicate that primary metal and scrap exports were close to the output volume. Such as, the United States exported 91 per cent of the primary aluminium output and 60.5 per cent of scrap recovery.

After the exports, the domestic aluminium output available in the market was 63,600 tonnes of primary aluminium and 1.37 million tonnes of scrap. Among the import volume, the estimated surplus was 1.22 million tonnes, takin g account the apparent consumption was 4.3 million tonnes in 2024 compared to 4.15 million tonnes in the previous year, according to Statista.

So, the total estimated surplus is 1.37 million tonnes, after accumulating all the data the US Geological Survey. This surplus volume could be used in the domestic market in 2025 when the demand is anticipated to grow. In the entire North America, aluminium demand is projected to grow, exceeding the 10-year average.