Primary aluminium production in Q1 2025 grows but at a lower rate– factors uncovered here

Let’s delve why global primary aluminium production experienced a slower growth rate in Q1 2025, examine the total output during this period, and assess whether it aligns with the industry’s outlook for the year.

1. Q1 2025 Production

In the first quarter of 2025, the world primary aluminium production was 18.108 million tonnes, compared to 17.869 million tonnes in Q1 2024. In March (31 calendar days), the output stood at 6.23 million tonnes, up by 10.07 per cent 5.66 million tonnes in February (28 calendar days). On a year-on-year calculation, it registered a 2.32 per cent increase 6.089 million tonnes.

The daily average primary aluminium production during the period under review was 200,900 tonnes, up by 2.29 per cent 196,400 tonnes a year ago, aligned with the growth rate seen through March.

The month-on-month production increase in March was driven by all the major primary aluminium producing regions. In China, the output grew by 8.8 per cent M-o-M 3.4 million tonnes to 3.7 million tonnes, while that in Europe (including Russia) increased by 10.6 per cent 537,000 tonnes to 594,000 tonnes. Even the Gulf Cooperation Council and Asia (ex-China) witnessed an increase in production M-o-M 474,000 tonnes to 523,000 tonnes and 374,000 tonnes to 415,000 tonnes, respectively.

Amid the M-o-M growth across all the major primary aluminium producing regions, why did growth rate showed a bearish trend in Q1 2025? One of the major reasons was the March production in all these countries remained range-bound compared to the output in January, perhaps narrowed the Y-o-Y growth rate of Q1 2025. According to IAI, the total primary aluminium production in March was only 6,000 tonnes higher than in January.

Moreover, the Y-o-Y restricted growth in each month of this year, particularly the decline in February by about 1 per cent annually, impacted the growth rate in Q1 2025 primary aluminium production.

2. Problem Area

IAI found three primary aluminium-producing regions in the world churned out lower volume in March 2025 than in the previous year. The Gulf Cooperation Council, which is recognised as an emerging hub of primary aluminium production, particularly for low-carbon metal, produced 523,000 tonnes in March 2025, down by 2.6 per cent 537,000 tonnes in March 2024. The output in Oceania and North America in March 2025 also registered a fall of 1.86 per cent and 1 per cent Y-o-Y, reaching 158,000 tonnes versus 161,000 tonnes and 338,000 tonnes compared to 341,000 tonnes.

The soaring LME aluminium price throughout March 2025 could be a valid reason for the bearish trend of primary aluminium production. Until March 26, 2025, the LME aluminium price stood above USD 2,600 per tonne, reaching as high as USD 2,737 per tonne on March 12, driven majorly by global supply concerns amid US tariffs. Analysts revised their average market deficit to 36,165 tonnes in 2025 an oversupply of 100,000 tonnes. The deficit is expected to grow to 512,023 t in 2026 with the average price lifting further.

3. Areas with production growth

According to IAI, Europe’s primary aluminium production marked a year-on-year increase of 4.18 per cent in March 2025 578,000 tonnes to 594,000 tonnes. In the entire quarter of Q1, the region produced 1.728 million tonnes, up by 1.9 per cent, indicating an ease of energy supply disruption. Africa’s output grew by 5.57 per cent 377,000 tonnes to 398,000 tonnes. China’s production also recorded a surge 10.582 million tonnes to 10.852 million tonnes, following an increase in March production, amounting to 3.729 million tonnes versus 3.606 million tonnes.

4. Industry Outlook 2025

According to AL Circle’s comprehensive report, Aluminium Industry Outlook 2025, global primary aluminium production is projected to reach 74.5 million tonnes this year. So far, 18.108 million tonnes have been produced, which is 24.3 of the annual forecast. In comparison, by the same time last year, production had reached 24.8 per cent of the yearly target. This indicates that the current production pace is slightly trailing behind expectations.

5. Conclusion

Overall, primary aluminium production has not been significantly impacted by the US tariffs so far. If the current growth trend continues the next quarter, output is projected to reach around 18.26 million tonnes. The key question now is whether this milestone can be surpassed, especially with several new projects in the pipeline.